Tag Archives: anejo

Change is at Hand for the Tequila Market, Part I

tequila market, masa azulPart I of II

Written by Chris Zarus of TequilaRack

Tequila Brands and Producers Have Already Sailed Into the Sucker Hole

For those new to the expression, a “sucker hole” is a colloquial term referring to a spate of good weather that “suckers” sailors into leaving port just in time for a storm to resume at full force and wreak havoc on the ship and crew.

For both Tequila Brand Owners and producers of a certain size, their ship has already sailed, and the storm is now closing in on them. Some in denial, others looking through rose-colored margarita glasses, still believe they can navigate through to that glimmer of light on the horizon. However, the perfect storm of doom looms just past the horizon of hope, and will soon envelope and destroy most, if not all, in its wake.

Oh, and that’s the good news. The bad news is that only a few of the big and the very nimble will survive.

This is because of a number of factors, primarily that too many of us bought in to the Yankelovich and similar studies that declared premium and above 100% Agave Tequila brands as the next big thing.

While the premises of these market premonitions were undoubtedly true, too many of us jumped headfirst into the juice just before the world economic decline. Six hundred brands have turned into 1200 brands in less than five years. The growth of the market has been dramatic compared with other distilled spirits, yet, it’s still relatively small, ranked only 4th in US volume. It has not grown fast enough to accommodate all of the entries into the field.

Resistance is Futile – Change is at Hand for the Tequila Market

train wreckThe Gravy Train Wreck Ahead

I’m sure that for many of you, in just reading the title of this article, your blood pressure has escalated, and you may already be misdirecting your anger at the author.

For others who have experienced the many similar economic paths to consolidation in the global beverage industry, you have already accepted that change has to occur, and you will soon better understand and appreciate the math behind what I am about to lay out, and why everything I’m about to outline here will happen in due course.

For those of you who have your personal fortunes riding on the Tequila Train, both prominence and profit may still seem to be so close that you think you can see the light at the end of the tunnel, or beyond the next bend. But, I’m sorry to say that for most of us in the biz, the light at the end of the tunnel is that of an oncoming locomotive. This will be a catastrophic collision, albeit in slow motion, that will drain your resources and your resolve.

iwsrWhat can be learned from the Russians? (Excerpted from JustDrinks.com)

The global economic crisis has had a significant impact on the Russian spirits market, changing market dynamics and briefly halting the much-lauded premiumisation trend, according to current research.

A recently released report from the International Wine and Spirit Research (IWSR) on Russia’s spirits market claims that the downturn has also led to “…disruptions across the supply chain, with many suppliers and distributors going bankrupt or halting production. For healthier companies, however, it has presented an opening to establish their brands and take market share…”

cloud liningThe Silver Tequila Clouds have a very Dark Lining (Excerpted from Global market review of Tequila – forecasts to 2013 www.researchandmarkets.com )

The history of the Tequila industry has been one of boom and bust. Sales rose during the 1940’s only to collapse again in the mid-50’s. Export sales rose steadily from the 1960’s onward, although domestic sales fell sharply in the 1980’s due again to an economic slump, and the severe Mexican economic crisis of the early 1980’s resulted in plummeting sales.

The market was again disrupted by a critical shortage of Agave beginning in the late ’90’s, which served to hold back the category’s international development as brand owners were forced to divert limited supplies to the core US market, and quality perceptions were damaged as some manufacturers moved from 100% to 51% (Mixto) Agave products.

Today, that dynamic is in reverse, and the market is in oversupply. More and more 100% Agave products are coming into the market. This is helping to raise quality perceptions, and in turn, demand is surging not only in core Mexican and US markets but across a number of other countries.

The outlook for the category has rarely been better, and Casa Noble Tequila president and COO David Ravandi commented, “Tequila is entering a stage of consolidation in the world markets. It is no longer a fad. The fact that 100% Agave Tequila exports have increased tremendously over the last two years is extremely positive for the product’s outlook in the years to come.”

US Tequila Importation is a Sucker Bet

tequila history, santa fe“My cousin will make the best Tequila for you Mr. Gringo”

“So, my friend, you want a great Tequila brand? We will make it for you. Just fifty percent cash up front to start the process.”

Unfortunately, far too many have fallen for this old gag. Relying heavily on the forecasting reports of the early 2000’s that suggested that luxury Tequila would be the next big spirits category after vodka.

With dollar signs in their eyes, the believers drank the Tequila Kool-Aid, most of them spending way too much to buy a brand, custom molded bottles, etc. But the worst part was that this left little if any money for marketing. Many did not even understand brand marketing inflation was happening right under their noses.

It had started soon after Patron hit 100,000 cases in volume in 2001, and the cost to market a Tequila brand in the US went from $1 to $10M per year. Today it takes at least $20M per year just to play in the same ballpark as Patron’s $50M plus, Sauza’s $35M plus, and Cuervo’s $30M plus marketing budgets.

Who could have predicted that a “realistic” business plan for the next successful ultra-premium Tequila brand calling for only 10,000 cases in the first year would end in it’s investors taking a bath?

The problem with this equation is three-fold:

1) Pricing: Unlike vodka and white rum, 100% Agave Tequila is just too expensive to produce and bottle in Mexico. Unless, like rum, vodka and mixto Tequila, it is able to be shipped in bulk and bottled near the final consumer, the cost involved with 100% Agave Tequila is always going to be too high to attain critical volume and profit levels.

2) Volume: US mass volumes are best when a spirits category is between $9.99-29.99/750ml. One hundred percent Agave Tequila is currently profitable only at the upper ranges when higher volumes are attained.

3) Distribution: The US “3-Tier” Distribution System is at best an oligopoly, and 19 states run a monopoly. Of the 1200 plus Tequila brands, want to guess how many they want to carry? Well, after the top 20, you are very lucky to be “special order only”. If you are fortunate enough to live in the states of California or Arizona, where one can be both the importer and distributor, you will find yourself driving your precious Tequila brand around to each account in your car.

Without product volumes or market clout, you will be hard pressed to get even an appointment, let alone a vender number with the chain restaurants and grocery stores. These major chain stores like Chili’s, Chevy’s, Costco, Kroger, etc., drive at least 85% of the combined volume in all but the control states. Without access to the chains, your market becomes the handful of privately owned, “Mom & Pop” accounts that usually know that small independent distributors are easy prey for bending the law on consignment, stringing out payments, or not paying at all.

While driving your own brand around certainly makes time for the personal touch and focus, these hand-selling efforts prove to be the most inefficient ways to distribute one Tequila brand. Your glass ceiling to fame and fortune becomes that next level of chain distribution that can only be had by a state-wide delivery system of the large wholesale distributor.

With Tequila segment Pricing, Volume and Distribution all against you, one will need to have a lot more money than the brands of the past in order to simply survive in the US.

Tanks-a-lot for Nothing

Call the tank maker and raise your stocks of liquid now!

no masUnfortunately, most of the mid-sized Tequila distilleries have bought into the notion that Agave prices will go up in the very near future. They base this notion on the boom and bust cycle of the past, and like Lehman Brothers, believe that they have successfully timed the market.

Greedily, many producers are now mortgaged to the hilt in order to produce all the Tequila that they possibly can afford to store in stainless tanks or wooden barrels. Fear of the impending Agave price increase that has yet to happen (and may not for many, many years) has seemingly forced them all into a squirrel-like stockpiling frenzy.

Are they storing Blanco, like acorns, for the hard winter ahead? These stored nuts of liquid demise are in reality winds conspiring to produce the perfect storm for all but the most financially secure and/or nimble producers.

Copyright 2010 International Tasting Group (ITG), All rights reserved. Unless otherwise noted, ITG is the legal copyright holder of the material on our blog and it may not be used, reprinted, or published without our written consent.

Links

SPIRITS TRENDS

U.S. Spirits Market 2008, Gross Revenues by Price Category

http://www.discus.org/pdf/2009IndustryBriefing.pdf (This is the most recent report by DISCUS for 2009. Tequila volume is still listed as 4th.)

http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Spirits+fast+track+brands.-a0144204154 (shows Patrón reaching 119K cases in volume in 2001.)

http://archive.cyark.org/2012-understanding-the-maya-calendars-blog

http://www.forgottenagesresearch.com/index.htm

http://www.nostradamus.org

http://www.oceanfreightusa.com/topic_impg.php?ch=19 (Bonded warehouses.)

http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/02/09/tequila-agriculture.html (agave farmers)

http://www.yankelovich.com/ (state of the consumer)

tequilarack

Originally posted October 1, 2010 by Chris Zarus of TequilaRack.  This is considered a standard in the industry and is even more relevant today.

Please visit TequilaRack, a member of the Tequila Aficionado Flight of Sites.

 

 

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Sipping off the Cuff: El Afan Anejo

El Afan Anejo Tequila

Tequila Aficionado’s Alex Perez and Mike Morales taste and discuss El Afan Anejo tequila.

El Afan Anejo

Sipping off the Cuff(tm) began as an audio podcast in 2006 and is Tequila Aficionado’s first and longest running tequila review program. Sipping off the Cuff is broadcast every Friday (and occasionally Tuesdays) on YouTube and TequilaAficionado.com. If you are a Tequila, Mezcal or Sotol brand owner and would like yourproduct(s) reviewed on an upcoming episode of Sipping off the Cuff, please contact Mike@TequilaAficionado.com.

Catch more of Tequila Aficionado on YouTube HERE.

Monday Madness

Monday Madness was created as a blooper by-product of our production process for the Tequila Aficionado exclusive video program, Sipping off the Cuff. When M.A. “Mike” Morales and Alexander “Alex” Perez get together, whether in person or via Skype, to review tequilas for Sipping off the Cuff, something silly is bound to happen.  Rather than present these clips with their reviews, we chose to respect serious viewers’ time and get right to business with each SOTC episode to keep them at ten minutes or less.  The outtakes are often funny and show our silly side, so we chose to share them with you for your amusement, as well as ours, in our Monday Madness video feature.  Monday Madness is the evidence of how very much fun we have doing what we love here at Tequila Aficionado Media.

Sipping off the Cuff

Sipping off the Cuff™ began as an audio podcast in 2006 and is Tequila Aficionado’s first and longest running tequila review program. Sipping off the Cuff is broadcast every Friday (and occasionally Tuesdays) on YouTube and TequilaAficionado.com. If you are a Tequila, Mezcal or Sotol brand owner and would like yourproduct(s) reviewed on an upcoming episode of Sipping off the Cuff, please contact Mike@TequilaAficionado.com.  Click here to see all of our Sipping off the Cuff™ programming.

tequila aficionado newsletter, blooper, sipping off the cuff, monday madness

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Sipping off the Cuff: Suavecito Anejo

Suavecito Tequila Anejo

Tequila Aficionado’s Alex Perez and Mike Morales taste and discuss Suavecito Anejo tequila.

Suavecito Anejo

Monday Madness

Monday Madness was created as a blooper by-product of our production process for the Tequila Aficionado exclusive video program, Sipping off the Cuff. When M.A. “Mike” Morales and Alexander “Alex” Perez get together, whether in person or via Skype, to review tequilas for Sipping off the Cuff, something silly is bound to happen.  Rather than present these clips with their reviews, we chose to respect serious viewers’ time and get right to business with each SOTC episode to keep them at ten minutes or less.  The outtakes are often funny and show our silly side, so we chose to share them with you for your amusement, as well as ours, in our Monday Madness video feature.  Monday Madness is the evidence of how very much fun we have doing what we love here at Tequila Aficionado Media.

Sipping off the Cuff

Sipping off the Cuff™ began as an audio podcast in 2006 and is Tequila Aficionado’s first and longest running tequila review program. Sipping off the Cuff is broadcast every Friday (and occasionally Tuesdays) on YouTube and TequilaAficionado.com. If you are a Tequila, Mezcal or Sotol brand owner and would like yourproduct(s) reviewed on an upcoming episode of Sipping off the Cuff, please contact Mike@TequilaAficionado.com.  Click here to see all of our Sipping off the Cuff™ programming.

tequila aficionado newsletter, blooper, sipping off the cuff, monday madness

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Sipping off the Cuff: El Arco Anejo

Tequila Aficionado’s Mike Morales and Alex Perez taste and discuss El Arco Anejo.

According to Gregory Meyer of El Arco Tequila Company:

The double oxygenation process is done post distillation by running the tequila over a stone like waterfall at 3 Mujeres (twice) right before bottling the blanco… This allows the tequila to oxygenate naturally and (open up) if you will…which we found produces a smoother tequila… There is no mechanical injection or force of Oxygen in the juice… We should probably explain that process better on our POS..everything we do at 3 Mujeres is “old process” “craft”..

This is done post distillation for all levels of tequila including all of the reposed class..

As you know we currently sell the Blanco and Anejo now in the US and will soon be bringing in our Rep and an Extra Anejo that is taking on a full 4 yr white oak barrel age and is to die for… 

It’s funny you say that it would be a great mixing tequila…you couldn’t be anymore right!… We have become a huge hit with mixologist as they love crafting cocktails with el Arco…we are very quickly becoming known as Mexico’s unofficial craft tequila and as such have been branding ourselves as such…

www.crafttequila.com

We have spread our wings to 7 states as of now and looking to turn on 3-5 more by spring of ’14

El Arco AnejoOhio

Tennessee

Indiana

Kentucky

North Dakota

Connecticut

Rhode Island

 

el arco tequila

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Sipping off the Cuff: El Arco Blanco

Tequila Aficionado’s Mike Morales and Alex Perez taste and discuss El Arco Blanco.

According to Gregory Meyer of El Arco Tequila Company:

The double oxygenation process is done post distillation by running the tequila over a stone like waterfall at 3 Mujeres (twice) right before bottling the blanco… This allows the tequila to oxygenate naturally and (open up) if you will…which we found produces a smoother tequila… There is no mechanical injection or force of Oxygen in the juice… We should probably explain that process better on our POS..everything we do at 3 Mujeres is “old process” “craft”..

This is done post distillation for all levels of tequila including all of the reposed class..

As you know we currently sell the Blanco and Anejo now in the US and will soon be bringing in our Rep and an Extra Anejo that is taking on a full 4 yr white oak barrel age and is to die for… 

It’s funny you say that it would be a great mixing tequila…you couldn’t be anymore right!… We have become a huge hit with mixologist as they love crafting cocktails with el Arco…we are very quickly becoming known as Mexico’s unofficial craft tequila and as such have been branding ourselves as such…

www.crafttequila.com

We have spread our wings to 7 states as of now and looking to turn on 3-5 more by spring of ’14

El Arco BlancoOhio

Tennessee

Indiana

Kentucky

North Dakota

Connecticut

Rhode Island

el arco tequila

 

Never miss and article or review again – Subscribe now!

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